Research firm Omdia has published its latest predictions for the growth of the global recorded-music market.
The figures cover ‘retail sales’ which Omdia defines as spending on physical and digital music plus trade revenue from advertising, performance rights and sync.
Here are the big figures: a predicted $48.3bn of retail sales in 2026, growing to more than $50bn in 2027 and $56.8bn by 2030.
“By the end of 2028, the number of years in which retail revenue has grown this century will exceed the number of years in which it has declined,” noted Omdia in its announcement of the forecasts.
Its report predicts that annual global spending on streaming subscriptions will grow by 7.2% this year to $30.5bn, and then to $37bn by 2030.
“Although spending on physical formats is forecast to rise over the next five years, the rate of annual growth is expected to slow, reaching just 1.9% in 2030, when physical sales will be worth $8.3 billion,” added Omdia.
“Combined audio and video advertising revenue is projected to rise 5.6% this year to $5.3 billion, before reaching $6.2 billion in 2030.”
The other key prediction in the report concerns the rise of China in the global revenue rankings. It overtook Germany to become the fourth-biggest recorded-music market in 2025Â according to the IFPI, but Omdia says it won’t stop there.
The company expects China to overtake the UK in 2028 and Japan in 2029 to become the second biggest market behind the US.
“The country has long been viewed as a major emerging opportunity, and these forecasts show it is now delivering meaningful value to the global music business,” said Omdia’s principal analyst Simon Dyson.
